More than 190 nations are meeting in Cancun, Mexico for the latest round of United Nations talks towards a global deal on stopping catastrophic climate change.
What is happening at the Cancun climate summit?
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was set up to stop global temperatures rising above dangerous levels as a result of man made emissions. Each year the Conference of the Parties (COP) meet to discuss progress. This is COP 16. The ultimate aim is a global deal that commits the world to cutting greenhouse gases by 50 per cent by 2050. Other ways to cut emissions include deals to stop deforestation and help poor countries develop in a green way.
Who will be there?
Officials and environment ministers from 194 countries will meet at the Moon Palace Hotel and the Cancunmesse on the coastal resort of Cancun, Mexico. All together an estimated 15,000 people representing Governments, charities and media will travel to Cancun for the conference.
What does this have to do with Copenhagen?
The last meeting of the COP in Copenhagen ended in recrimination and failure. The meeting was billed as ‘the last chance to save the planet’ and world leaders including US President Barack Obama turned up. However rich and poor nations failed to agree on a legally binding target to cut emissions. Instead a weak ‘Copenhagen Accord’ was signed that allows countries to choose their own targets but has no power to force them to keep the promises.
Will this time be different?
In comparison to Copenhagen this meeting has been massively down played, largely because ministers from all countries do not want to look stupid again for promising a deal that is unlikely. World leaders are not even turning up this time, leaving it to their environment and foreign ministers.
So will anything be achieved?
It is generally agreed that a global deal to cut emissions is unlikely. Indeed Christiania Figueres, the head of the talks, believes a single, definitive and all-encompassing deal is unlikely to happen in her lifetime. However supporters of the process are hopeful that the talks could make progress towards a deal by putting in place the ‘functioning architecture’. For example it needs to be decided how emissions will be “monitored, reported and verified” before countries are happy to sign up to targets.
Who are the main players?
Christiania Figueres, the executive secretary of UNFCCC, a former negotiator from Costa Rica, is in charge of the talks. Fernando Tudela, Mexico’s main delegate, who is hoping for a breakthrough. Connie Hedegaard, EU climate action commissioner, is not too optimistic about negotiations. Xie Zhenhua, China's lead climate official, wants to see developed countries "do more and do better". Todd Stern, the US special envoy for climate change, believes each country should choose their own targets.
What are the main issues?
The ultimate aim of agreeing a global deal on cutting emissions is likely to be put to one side for now because it is so difficult for the world to agree. Instead there may be a series of ‘mini-deals’ on issues like deforestation, with rich nations agreeing to pay poor nations not to chop down trees. Countries could also decide how to share information on green technology so poor nations do not miss out on the opportunities to cut emissions through new inventions. A key issue is 'climate finance', which is the money paid out to poor countries to help them fight climate change.
Is there any money on the table?
Yes $100 (£60) billion by 2020 to help poor countries adapt to climate change and cut emissions. However there are further discussions on how this money will be raised. One of the most popular suggestion is through a tax on aviation and shipping. There is also a question over who will dole out funds. Will it be the World Bank or a whole new institution? This money will be used to help persuade developing nations to cut emissions. In the short term there is $10 (£6) billion per annum up to 2013 to help poor countries start adapting to climate change now. The UK has pledged £1.5 billion towards this ‘Fast Start Fund’.
Who are the main countries?
The US and China, the world’s two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, dominate the talks because without them greenhouse gases are unlikely to fall. However, the US is unable to make any commitments on cutting emissions at the moment because it would be impossible for the President Barack Obama to get any legislation through Congress now it is dominated by Republicans. This means China is also reluctant to move until it is certain that the US will also cut emissions. The EU has taken a tough stance by promising to cut emissions by 20 per cent by 2020 and could increase its target to 30 per cent. Do not underestimate the small island states like the Maldives, that are very vocal because the threat of global warming causing sea level rise.
What is the UK’s position?
The UK negotiates as part of the EU block and wants a global deal as soon as possible. Chris Huhne, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, will be in Cancun to call on all countries to increase targets on cutting emissions. Already the UK has agreed to cut its own emissions by more than 30 per cent by 2020 and wants the EU to do the same.
What does this have to do with the Kyoto Protocol?
The Kyoto protocol, which came into force in 2005 and commits rich countries to cut their emissions by 2012, is the only existing treaty the world has on climate change. Essentially any deal out of Cancun will set out targets for the world post 2012. Poor countries want the deal to be an extension of Kyoto because it puts the emphasis on rich nations cutting emissions. However industrialised nations, including the US, want to start again with a new deal that asks both developed and developing countries to make commitments. There may be two deals made to appease both sides, with an extension to the Kyoto Protocol and another deal including the US and other countries. The EU has made it clear it will honour the Kyoto Protocol as long as other countries come on board.
What are the main sticking points?
‘Burden sharing’ is a key issue. Poor countries believe that because the rich world caused the problem they should make the major cuts. But industrialised nations like the US are wary of committing to anything they believe could limit their competitiveness. They also argue that it is pointless acting unless the fastest developing countries, that will produce the majority of emissions in the future, also act. Another contentious issue is Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), as the world has to decide how to count emissions from these sectors and 'Hot air', which are the emissions cuts stored up by countries like Russian when they de-industrialised.
What about the sceptics?
The sceptics will also be at the conference arguing that climate change does not exist and even if it does it is natural phenomenon. However an argument that is likely to be taken more seriously, is that the UN process is not the right way to tackle climate change. Many critics believe that it is impossible to reach a global deal and the talks are a waste of money. Instead the world should be spending money on helping poor nations to adapt or even ‘geo-engineering’ like putting mirrors in space.
What about the science?
The intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that advises the UN on global warming, has concluded that greenhouse gases are warming the planet and it is most likely to be caused by mankind. Although the body has faced criticism over the past year following a series of scandals, independent scientific panels have cleared it of any wrongdoing. It is generally agreed that if greenhouse emissions continue to rise, global warming will continue. The temperature rise agreed to be the 'danger point' is 2C (3.8F).
Isn’t this conference going to have a rather large carbon footprint?
Yes, an estimated 15,000 people will travel to the conference from around the world. The last conference of this size produced as much emissions as town the size of Middlesbrough. However organisers claim as much as possible is being done to keep emissions down including using solar and wind to generate electricity, reducing water use in hotels and providing hybrid cars for transport. Delegates are encouraged to calculate their carbon emissions at computers provided at the conference and offset the impact by supporting local projects. The Mexican Government will plant around 10,000 trees and bushes around Cancun.
Will talks collapse again?
Unlikely, given expectations are so low. Rich and poor nations will almost certainly clash and some delegates are likely to walk out, but enough countries are committed to the UN process to keep it on track.
Will there be any celebrities there?
Ian McEwan and actors Bill Nighy, Scarlett Johansson and Kristin Davis are all calling for progress at the talks.
Is this the end?
The next COP is in South Africa and after that it is in Korea. It is hoped that a global deal will be reached by 2012, as the Kyoto Protocol will have come to an end and otherwise there will be no legal treaty in place to try to bring down emissions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8152624/QandA-Cancun-climate-change-conference-2010.html
